Does it really matter the way you end?

As basketball followers and media members, we love to search out patterns to make ourselves really feel higher about gamers and groups that we get pleasure from watching. It doesn’t matter what yr it’s; all of us have biases within the basketball world. Whether or not it’s to show some extent you made all through the season or simply since you’re an excellent fan, you’ll seek out each final iota of statistical data you’ll be able to to just remember to have been proper! It’s a bit annoying and heck, I’m normally a kind of folks scouring superior stats for that sort of data.

The brand new narrative rolling round NBA Twitter, in addition to an extremely loud MVP race dialog, is this concept of ending a season “robust.” Apparently, to win the NBA title, you merely HAVE to shut out a season in fashion. It’s by no means made sense to me both, so I made a decision to really look and see if that is true.

Do it is advisable to end a season sizzling to win the NBA title? I’m retaining this strictly top-line, no pick-me superior stats to suit a distinct segment argument, no unbelievable deep dives into accidents, we’re retaining this within the win-loss column since apparently, that’s all that issues. All of the information we’ll be taking a look at right now are over the ultimate 23 video games or so from the All-Star break to the tip of the season. Clearly, as a consequence of COVID and its results on the schedule, we’ll must be a bit versatile as we progress, however I believe all of us perceive the context.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

2017-2018 Finals
2018 Warriors: 14-10
2018 Cavaliers: 16-7

Let’s begin with the final version of the LeBron vs. Steph rivalry. The 2017-2018 Warriors have been checked out as among the best rosters ever assembled. Hell, their preseason championship odds have been -187, an objectively hilarious factor to take a look at! They completed the season 14-10 and contemplating they completed the season 58-24, these 10 losses have been a reasonably large chunk of their complete season losses. They really ended up ending 2nd within the West regardless of having one of the best offense within the NBA averaging 113.5 PPG. (Aspect notice, unbelievable that among the best rosters ever averaged 113.5 PPG simply 5 years in the past and now the 2023 Celtics common 117.5 PPG and that’s good for 4th! Basketball is enjoyable.) The Dubs really closed the season shedding 3 of 4. I promised no DEEP dives on accidents, however sure, Steph Curry was injured to shut the season. Good factor the Warriors nonetheless had KEVIN DURANT, KLAY THOMPSON, AND DRAYMOND GREEN. Goodness, what a roster. The Cavs have been the alternative. Closed the season wholesome and in fashion. They gained 6 of 8 to shut the yr however completed 4th within the East at 50-32. Conclusion? How both of those groups closed didn’t actually matter. The Warriors nonetheless swept the Cavs. Let’s soar to a yr with out an obscene tremendous crew.

Photograph by Joe Murphy/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

2018-2019 Finals
2019 Warriors 16-9
2019 Raptors 15-8

Simply kidding, another tremendous crew. Each groups within the Finals closed the common season nicely, however not in legendary style. Kawhi had actually began to kick issues into excessive gear, a number of the field scores he was placing up down the stretch have been unbelievable, I recommend the hardcore basketball followers go shuffle via Basketball Reference for a bit. The Warriors have been absolutely wholesome heading into the playoffs, their beginning 5 of Steph-Klay-Durant-Draymond-Cousins was rolling till…they misplaced Video games 2 and 5 to the 8-seed Clippers as Danilo Gallinari lit them up with 24 and 26 factors respectively. Shout out to Lou Williams with 36 in Sport 2 and 33 in Sport 5 off the bench. Common season momentum is nice till the Italian Dream will get a maintain of you, then all bets are off. On a critical notice, this season is an efficient instance of how completely different the playoffs are from the common season. The Warriors have been taking part in nice till KD went down after which unexpectedly, how they closed the common season didn’t imply something. Heck, even the Raptors with their insanely sizzling finish to the season, misplaced their first playoff recreation to the Orlando Magic! At residence! Keep in mind the D.J. Augustin recreation?! Anyway, we’re shedding focus, let’s head to, gulp, the bubble.

Photograph by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Photographs

2019-2020 Finals
2020 Lakers 2-5
2020 Warmth: 3-5

I’m not going to spend a ton of time on this season for apparent causes. It must be talked about that the Lakers have been on an absolute tear coming off the All-Star break earlier than the world shut down. They have been 8-2, #1 seed within the West, clearly one of the best crew in basketball on the time, however they did sort of stink throughout these few bizarre bubble common season video games. The Warmth have been fairly mid within the common season that yr, they completed 44-29, so not a ton to take from something this season. Rattling you COVID.

Photograph by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

2020-2021 Finals
2021 Bucks 14-9
2021 Suns: 16-7

Solely asterisk on this season is the shortage of an All-Star break, so I simply took the final 23-24 video games for every crew. Once more, as you’ll be able to see, nothing actually legendary happening right here. The Bucks completed the season 46-26, good for third within the East. Suns, 51-21, and 2nd within the West. Even within the playoffs, these groups weren’t essentially essentially the most dominant. The Bucks have been 16-7 within the playoffs, Suns completed 14-8, virtually a swap of their end-of-season information. What each groups undoubtedly had in widespread have been their stars dominating within the playoffs. Giannis-Middleton-Jrue was an unbelievable trio, particularly once they hit the Finals. Identical factor for Booker-Paul-Ayton, they have been sensational within the collection sweep towards Denver in Spherical 2. Nonetheless, goes to point out that whereas ending robust is sweet, you must flip that change come playoff time otherwise you’re going nowhere.

Photograph by Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald by way of Getty Photographs

2021-2022 Finals
2022 Warriors 11-12
2022 Celtics 17-5

It must be talked about, once more, that Steph Curry missed the final 13 video games of the season, however the Warriors went 6-7 in these video games. Earlier than that, they have been 5-5 with him, so not an enormous distinction. On the opposite aspect, I don’t assume I have to spend too lengthy on CelticsBlog speaking about how 2022 Celtics closed out the season. It was one thing really particular and carried into the playoffs fairly nicely, however sadly, they bought Steph Curry’d and that was that. This can be a fairly obscene instance, however form of ironic Celtics followers have been up in arms in regards to the crew ending the season, but then one which beat them within the Finals final yr completed final yr 11-12. Obtained to like basketball.

all the information and the information above, I believe we will safely say that whilst you’d clearly prefer to win as many video games as doable to shut out a season, it actually doesn’t have a real influence in your postseason efficiency. In case your famous person goes supernova, your common season report doesn’t matter, they’ll get you to the very high. Whether or not it’s Kawhi, Steph, Giannis, whoever, they may get you to the promise land with an excellent playoff run. Tatum and Brown did it final season earlier than falling to the PG legend, I believe the identical expectations apply. When the common season ends and the playoffs begin, your stars must go up one other stage. Interval.